You can draw some useful parallels between running a business and Forex trading. For instance, most successful businesses keep statistics on everything from their conversion rate, to their average dollar sale, to the number of people that come in the door. Businesses do this to keep on top of how they are doing on a day-to-day basis and businesses must first take score before begining to improve on that score. Using a Forex back testing plan in your trading works exactly the same way.

Now that you`re looking at Forex trading as a business, you need to learn some valuable statistics about your system so you can improve it`s performance. You would use a Forex back testing method. You can`t improve your system unless you have something to measure it against. How could you expect to improve your trading unless you knew what it was you were looking to improve? You can discover these measurements and other valuable information about your trading system, by using a Forex back testing plan.

There are two ways that you can use a Forex back testing plan to back test a system. You can do it manually, which can be a drawn-out and labour-intensive process, or you can do it with the aid of some software packages. Unfortunately, I recommend you do it by hand when you first start out. You`ll get a much better feel for your system, and you`ll understand exactly how using a Forex back testing plan works in all its intricacies. Once you have the Forex back testing plan and the in-depth knowledge, you could look at finding a software package that does it for you.

There are a few major statistics on your Forex back testing plan that you need that you will uncover through back testing. The first statistic you need to become familiar with is the R multiple principal. R stands for risk, the risk you take on any trade when you enter the market. The R multiple of a trade is the ratio of the profit or loss compared to the amount of money risked to make the profit or loss.

Therefore, if you risk $200 dollars in your initial purchase, and you make a profit of $1,000, you have made five times the amount you risked in the trade. You have an R multiple of five. This statistic gives you a good idea of the relative size of your profits to your losses. You can compare the average size of your winning trades with the average size of your losing trades.

The next statistic you`ll find useful is your win to loss ratio. This is how many times you get a winning trade in proportion to how many times you get a losing trade. For example, if you had ten trades, four of those trades were winners, and six were losers, your win to loss ratio is simply four to six. This is your hit rate; you`ll get 40% of your trades correct.

With these two simple statistics, you can calculate the average size of your profits and of your losses, multiply these figures with your win to loss ratio, and calculate on average how much money you make with every dollar you risk.

For those of you who think this sounds like a too much work, particularly using a Forex back testing plan that you need to do to uncover these statistics, consider this scenario: Imagine yourself trading a system that you knew had a win to loss ratio of 60/40. You made profit on every six trades and lost one out of every four. How do you think you would feel, where would your confidence level be, after you traded the system for a little while and you received a string of 11 losses in a row?

Now, you know that this system has a win to loss ratio of six to four. Would you have the confidence to open another trade if your system brought up another buy signal after getting 11 trades wrong?

Unless you use Forex back testing plan to back tested your system, I doubt that your confidence level will remain high. That trading system may be a fantastic profitable system. However, since you didn`t use your Forex back testing plan to back test it, you don`t know that historically this system received up to 13 losses in a row, but was still profitable.

Here`s another point you may not have picked up unless you used your Forex back testing plan. Once you`ve set your money management rules and you begin to trade, you will likely experience a string of losses. Countless times, I`ve had clients who get disheartened by this fact because they don`t understand the nature of setting good management. If you`re adhering to the rules of cutting your losses short and letting your profits run, because you`re cutting your losses short, those trades are going to last for a shorter amount of time.

This means once you begin trading the odds of getting losses early in the game are much higher than getting a winning trade. This is particularly true when you consider that many successful trading systems run on a 40/60 win to loss ratio. However, you will never know the intricacies of your system unless you use a Forex back testing plan and back test it.

Using a Forex back testing plan, will help you to understand what works and what doesn`t. It will give you the statistics to gauge the effectiveness of your trades. It fills in your scorecard, and allows you to make improvements. But, you shouldn`t simply believe everything I`ve told you. Instead, you need to prove it to yourself by using some Forex back testing plans and back test your system.

-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it comes to designing profitable forex trading systems.

Discover the “secret formula” of trading that anyone can use to consistently generate BIG profits from the market by downloading your FREE copy of David’s new Ultimate Forex Trading Systems course.

Click Here To Download ==> Forex Trading Systems http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/forex.html -=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

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Forex trading is one of the growing markets for making money in today’s world economy. If you are part of the forex trading game, you need well thought out and planned strategies. You also need up to the minute information and reliable data to help you along the way. With this said, in order to be successful at forex, you’ll want to invest in high quality products to help you analyze, watch and track the forex market. No little project at all. The good news to you is that there are options out there to help you do just that.

First of all, realize that forex trading is an excellent market to trade in. It has the ability to make you money without a whole lot of investing. And, you can trade with whatever you have, not necessarily millions of dollars. To get into the forex market, it makes sense to pay attention to the numbers for some time. Then, you’ll have a good feel for it long before your dollars are involved.

But, once you do get in, you’ll need up to the minute information. Consider the purchase of and use of valuable forex trading software programs. These programs can help you to track what is happening and in some, it will help you to better analyze the information as well. Of course, this in turn will help you to make the right decisions about your investments.

While market trading is always risky, many find that forex trading, when done right, is one of the most profitable without much start up investment opportunities out there. With the ability that you have to monitor and respond virtually instantly to the world’s market in forex, you are better able to make the right decisions which will then lead to those gains you are seeking.

for more information please see http://www.forex-trading-help.co.uk

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So you have some speculative funds and believe you can master the Forex or Futures Trading markets. Hang on for the reality and do yourself a favor by considering this.

Before you blindly believe the hype about Forex and Futures Trading.

Before you spend money on the greatest futures trading system ever.

Before you put any real money in a futures trading account.

Just consider the reality of the statistics and answer the following questions because they apply to you and your pocketbook.

Do you have $20,000 or more in speculative funds? I am talking about money that means nothing to your current standard of living. Can you look at it as money that you would be willing to start a fire with? The studies indicate this to be a very realistic expectation of the capital needed to learn the ropes of futures trading.

Have you spent 3 to 5 years studying and learning how futures trading works? Most futures trading veterans agree that buying 1 or 2 books or trading courses is not enough. The education is part learning from the success of others and part developing your own trading style. This education comes at a heavy price. Plan on purchasing several educational works. Are you willing to pay the price?

Are you sure that you have the mental discipline required to be a successful futures trader? In my opinion this is the major unknown to futures trading. Many professional traders express that their trading success is 80-90% mental discipline. Paper trading does not account for the emotional aspects and effects of a position moving against you. Now what if you had 3, 4 or 5 losing trades in a row? Do you have the discipline to stick with your trading system?

If your honest answer to any of the above is No, then you should consider putting yourself into a holding pattern until all conditions can be accomplished. Failure to effectively overcome any one of the above obstacles will almost certainly spell futures trading disaster.

Forex and futures trading can be a highly rewarding activity. The rewards are earned at a price. Do not believe the offers that claim how incredibly easy it is to make a fortune. It is not true. Any futures trading book or course you purchase should be viewed as a tool to learn by. It will be one step of many on your path to trading success.

Merv Thompson Author and operator of http://www.futures-brokers-review.com a website providing tools, resources and reviews for todays trader.

Find out about an exciting alternative to Forex and Futures
Trading at E-currency Trading

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It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from “bull” to “bear” or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can’t break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?
They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points
There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458

The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?
It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) – L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 – S1)

Where , H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) – 1.2474 = 1.2404
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2502
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537
S2 = 1.2439 – (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2…? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today’s chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session.
HOPS1, high of the previous session.
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.
PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don’t know the reason, and we don’t need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren’t just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?
We at StraightForex use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio (RR) of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.

Raul Lopez

http://www.straightforex.com

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Why should you consider foreign exchange, or forex trading? One compelling reason is that it is a huge business, trading nearly two trillion U.S. dollars on a daily basis. The potential to make money is out there for the well-informed trader. The forex market is the largest in the world. It is larger than the U.S. stock market, and has a daily trading volume larger than all the world’s stock markets combined. The following list provides a few reasons why forex trading is a smart move.

It’s Easy

If the idea of trading on the stock market is intimidating, you’re not alone. There is no way that anyone, including professional brokers, can know enough about all the stock options. Therefore, many traders specialize or focus on particular areas of the stock market, and many individuals are left to rely on the opinions of the professionals, who may or may not be good at their craft.

Trading on the forex market, in contrast, is much simpler. The primary currencies traded are the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the British pound. There is less to keep track of, so conducting research and analysis can be much easier.

You Can Do it from Home

If you’re interested in getting involved in forex trading, all you need is a computer and a bit of time. Granted, conducting some research is wise if you want to make the best choices. But once you have an idea of your strategy, you can conduct transactions online for minimal fees and without having to pay a professional to do it for you (although this is an option). There are a number of online options for trading foreign exchange, so you’ll need to conduct some research to determine the best choice for you. If you know others who trade this way, ask for their preferences. Conducting a simple Google search on forex trading will yield many results, so review and choose carefully.

The Investment is Minimal

To get involved in currency trading, you do not need to invest a lot of cash upfront. Many trading options are available for a small investment, some as low as a few hundred dollars. This allows new traders in particular to get involved, learn the process, and risk very little. To trade in the forex market, you need to determine your risk limit, and not invest above that amount. Because the initial investment can be low, many people can get involved that may not be able to invest in other options, such as traditional stocks. Forex trading is a good way to enter the trading market.

You Can Make Money

While trading on the forex market takes some research, skill, and a bit of luck, it is possible to make money. The potential for huge payoffs is at times exaggerated, but there are traders making large amounts of money in this market. The key is to learn what you are doing and make smart choices. This can include determining how much you are able and willing to risk, taking risks when necessary, and learning as much as you can about the market. Trading on the forex market also offers you more leverage than in other markets. You can use smaller amounts of money to your advantage, and the trading process is simpler than in other markets.

It’s Flexible

Trading on the Foreign Exchange market is a twenty-four hour process, which means that you don’t need to wait for the opening and closing of the exchange to know where you stand. You can make trades at any time of the day, which gives you much more control than if you are operating in the traditional stock market. This also allows traders to respond to breaking news immediately. The advantages of real-time trading are advantageous in that traders have a much better understanding of their investments. Conversely, in the traditional stock market, after-hours activities, for example, can affect stock values, but the affects are not immediately available.

If you’re interested in trading on the forex market, do your research. Many trading companies provide free information online. The more you know, the better you decisions you’ll be able to make. Many of these same companies offer free trial periods as well, which you can use to get your feet wet and determine if currency trading is for you.

Mike Singh is a finance enthusiast who writes articles about variety of fiscal topics. Checkout more Forex-related articles at Forex made easy.

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It was mentioned in a past article that Fibonacci forex trading is the basis of many forex trading systems used around the world by profitable forex traders. These systems are all based on the famous Fibonacci ratios (.236, .50, .382, .618, etc.) and each of them can specialize in a particular ratio along with other minor indicators in order to make the pinpointing of the entry and exit levels as accurate and profitable as possible.

One of the widely used Fibonacci ratios is the 0.382 ratio. As it can be easily seen on any forex chart, currency prices are continually changing and they follow an oscillatory pattern with peaks and valleys. The limit of the peak is usually called a resistance level while the valley is usually called a support.

In order to find the 0.382 ratio level what you do is, first; measure the size of the drop or rise over your time of interest. Once you have that value you multiply this by 0.382. Now depending on what you are looking at, a rise or a drop on the price of the particular “currency pair” you are trading, you will add the last value you calculated to the total drop or subtract the value from the total rise.

These operations will give you the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio level, either for a rise or a drop on the chart you are analyzing. Once you have the value you can then start planning the strategy you will follow in order to make a high probability profit from this valuable information. For the 0.382 ratio level calculated for a recent rise in the “currency pair” exchange price, your calculated level will be a highly probable support and for the case of a level calculated for a recent drop of the prices your level will be a highly probable resistance.

Knowing this ahead of the market and having the proper secondary indicators, will give you a huge advantage over most forex traders, and that’s something any trader would like they could count on. That’s why Fibonacci trading is so widely accepted over the world, and of course, why it’s so profitable and successful.

Free chapters of a forex day trading system can be downloaded at http://www.1-forex.com in case you are interested in learning more about Fibonacci forex trading.

Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.

>> http://www.1-forex.com

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Fibonacci forex trading is the basis of many forex trading systems used by a great number of professional forex brokers around the globe, and many billions of dollars are profitable traded every year based on these trading techniques.

Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician and he is best remembered by his world famous Fibonacci sequence, the definition of this sequence is that it’s formed by a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers; 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 …But in the case of currency trading what is more important for the forex trader is the Fibonacci ratios derived from this sequence of numbers, i.e. .236, .50, .382, .618, etc.

These ratios are mathematical proportions prevalent in many places and structures in nature, as well as in many man made creations.

Forex trading can greatly benefit form this mathematical proportions due to the fact that the oscillations observed in forex charts, where prices are visibly changing in an oscillatory pattern, follow Fibonacci ratios very closely as indicators of resistance and support levels; maybe not to the last cent, but so close as to be really amazing.

Fibonacci price points, or levels, for any forex currency pair can be calculated in advance so that the trader will know when to enter or exit the market if the prediction given by the Fibonacci forex day trading system he uses fulfills its predictions.

Many people tries to make this analysis overly complicated scaring away many new forex traders that are just beginning to understand how the forex market works and how to make a profit in it. But this is not how it has to be. I can’t say it’s a simple concept but it is quite understandable for any trader once he or she has grasped the basics and has had some practice trading using Fibonacci levels along with other secondary indicators that will help to improve the accuracy of the entry and exit point for every particular trade.

Free chapters of a forex day trading system can be downloaded at http://www.1-forex.com in case you are interested in learning more about Fibonacci forex trading.

Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.

http://www.1-forex.com

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What is FOREX or FOREX MARKET?

The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex or FX market) is the largest financial market in the world, with over $1.5 trillion changing hands every day.

That is larger than all US equity and Treasury markets combined!Unlike other financial markets that operate at a centralized location (i.e. stock exchange), the worldwide Forex market has no central location.

It is a global electronic network of banks, financial institutions and individual traders, all involved in the buying and selling of national currencies. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York.

At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.Traditionally, access to the Forex market has been made available only to banks and other large financial institutions. With advances in technology over the years, however, the Forex market is now available to everybody, from banks to money managers to individual traders trading retail accounts.

The time to get involved in this exciting, global market has never been better than now. Open an account and become an active player in the largest market on the planet.

The Forex Market is very different than trading currencies on the futures market, and a lot easier, than trading stocks or commodities.

Whether you are aware of it or not, you already play a role in the Forex market.

The simple fact that you have money in your pocket makes you an investor in currency, particularly in the US Dollar. By holding US Dollars, you have elected not to hold the currencies of other nations.

Your purchases of stocks, bonds or other investments, along with money deposited in your bank account, represent investments that rely heavily on the integrity of the value of their denominated currency the US Dollar.

Due to the changing value of the US Dollar and the resulting fluctuations in exchange rates, your investments may change in value, affecting your overall financial status.

With this in mind, it should be no surprise that many investors have taken advantage of the fluctuation in Exchange Rates, using the volatility of the Foreign Exchange market as a way to increase their capital.

Example: suppose you had $1000 and bought Euros when the exchange rate was 1.50 Euros to the dollar. You would then have 1500 Euros.

If the value of Euros against the US dollar increased then you would sell (exchange) your Euros for dollars and have more dollars than you started with.

Example:You might see the following:EUR/USD last trade 1.5000 meansOne Euro is worth $1.50 US dollars.

The first currency (in this example, the EURO) is referred to as the base currency and the second (/USD) as the counter or quote currency.

The FOREX plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the exchange of currencies.

International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a FOREX market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Germany can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Euros in exchange for US Dollar.

RISK WARNING:
Risks of currency trading: Margined currency trading is an extremely risky form of investment and is only suitable for individuals and institutions capable of handling the potential losses it entails. An account with an broker allows you to trade foreign currencies on a highly leveraged basis (up to about 400 times your account equity). The funds in an account that is trading at maximum leverage may be completely lost if the position(s) held in the account experiences even a one percent swing in value, given the possibility of losing one’s entire investment. Speculation in the foreign exchange market should only be conducted with risk capital funds that, if lost, will not significantly affect the investors financial well-being.

Veteran Trader Martin Maier Founder of
Fenix Capital Management, LLC http://www.fenixcapitalmanagement.com

He is the developer of various futures and commodities trading programs and his systems have been ranked and rated by various large American Investment Profile Rating Companies such as STAR and MAR.

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